Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89
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Published:2022-12-02
Issue:12
Volume:18
Page:2545-2565
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ISSN:1814-9332
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Container-title:Climate of the Past
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Clim. Past
Author:
Pappert Duncan, Barriendos Mariano, Brugnara YuriORCID, Imfeld Noemi, Jourdain Sylvie, Przybylak RajmundORCID, Rohr Christian, Brönnimann Stefan
Abstract
Abstract. The winter 1788/89 was one of the coldest winters Europe had witnessed in the past 300 years. Fortunately, for historical climatologists, this
extreme event occurred at a time when many stations across Europe, both private and as part of coordinated networks, were making quantitative
observations of the weather. This means that several dozen early instrumental series are available to carry out an in-depth study of this severe
cold spell. While there have been attempts to present daily spatial information for this winter, there is more to be done to understand the weather
variability and day-to-day processes that characterised this weather extreme. In this study, we seek to reconstruct daily spatial high-resolution
temperature and sea level pressure fields of the winter 1788/89 in Europe from November through February. The reconstruction is performed with an
analogue resampling method (ARM) that uses both historical instrumental data and a weather type classification. Analogue reconstructions are then
post-processed through an ensemble Kalman fitting (EnKF) technique. Validation experiments show good skill for both reconstructed variables, which
manage to capture the dynamics of the extreme in relation to the large-scale circulation. These results are promising for more such studies to be
undertaken, focusing on different extreme events and other regions in Europe and perhaps even further back in time. The dataset presented in this
study may be of sufficient quality to allow historians to better assess the environmental and social impacts of the harsh weather.
Funder
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung H2020 European Research Council Narodowe Centrum Nauki
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Paleontology,Stratigraphy,Global and Planetary Change
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