Parameterization of wind evolution using lidar

Abstract

Abstract. Wind evolution, i.e., the evolution of turbulence structures over time, has become an increasingly interesting topic in recent years, mainly due to the development of lidar-assisted wind turbine control, which requires accurate prediction of wind evolution to avoid unnecessary or even harmful control actions. Moreover, 4D stochastic wind field simulations can be made possible by integrating wind evolution into standard 3D simulations to provide a more realistic simulation environment for this control concept. Motivated by these factors, this research aims to investigate the potential of Gaussian process regression in the parameterization of wind evolution. Wind evolution is commonly quantified using magnitude-squared coherence of wind speed and is estimated with lidar data measured by two nacelle-mounted lidars in this research. A two-parameter wind evolution model modified from a previous study is used to model the estimated coherence. A statistical analysis is done for the wind evolution model parameters determined from the estimated coherence to provide some insights into the characteristics of wind evolution. Gaussian process regression models are trained with the wind evolution model parameters and different combinations of wind-field-related variables acquired from the lidars and a meteorological mast. The automatic relevance determination squared exponential kernel function is applied to select suitable variables for the models. The performance of the Gaussian process regression models is analyzed with respect to different variable combinations, and the selected variables are discussed to shed light on the correlation between wind evolution and these variables.