Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas
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Published:2020-10-09
Issue:19
Volume:17
Page:4815-4830
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ISSN:1726-4189
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Container-title:Biogeosciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Biogeosciences
Author:
Ribeiro Andreia Filipa SilvaORCID, Russo AnaORCID, Gouveia Célia MarinaORCID, Páscoa PatríciaORCID, Zscheischler JakobORCID
Abstract
Abstract. The interaction between co-occurring drought and hot conditions is often particularly damaging to crop's health and may cause crop failure. Climate change exacerbates such risks due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of dry and hot events in many land regions. Hence, here we model the trivariate dependence between spring maximum temperature and spring precipitation and wheat and barley yields over two province regions in Spain with nested copulas. Based on the full trivariate joint distribution, we (i) estimate the impact of compound hot and dry conditions on wheat and barley loss and (ii) estimate the additional impact due to
compound hazards compared to individual hazards. We find that crop loss increases when drought or
heat stress is aggravated to form compound dry and hot conditions and that an increase in the severity of
compound conditions leads to larger damage. For instance, compared to moderate drought only,
moderate compound dry and hot conditions increase the likelihood of crop loss by 8 % to
11 %, while when starting with moderate heat, the increase is between 19 % to 29 %
(depending on the cereal and region). These findings suggest that the likelihood of crop loss is
driven primarily by drought stress rather than by heat stress, suggesting that drought plays the dominant
role in the compound event; that is, drought stress is not required to be as extreme as heat
stress to cause similar damage. Furthermore, when compound dry and hot conditions aggravate stress from
moderate to severe or extreme levels, crop loss probabilities increase 5 % to 6 % and
6 % to 8 %, respectively (depending on the cereal and region). Our results highlight the
additional value of a trivariate approach for estimating the compounding effects of dry and
hot extremes on crop failure risk. Therefore, this approach can effectively contribute to design
management options and guide the decision-making process in agricultural practices.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Earth-Surface Processes,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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