Geological seabed stability model for informing Irish offshore renewable energy opportunities

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change has driven the European Union to propose a reduction in carbon emissions by increasing renewable energy production. Although Ireland is rich in renewable energy, especially offshore wind resources, it is failing to reduce its annual carbon emissions. This study endeavours to improve Ireland's marine spatial planning abilities and offshore renewable energy developments by harmonising and customising a unique geological dataset for incorporation into geospatial assessments of Ireland's continental shelf. A dataset of 1858 points, including 17 new seabed samples collected at strategic sites for this study, is created and used to build a series of geospatial outputs. Data are interpolated with empirical Bayesian kriging to use variogram analyses for probabilistically interpolating coded geological values. The interpolation results are validated through leave-one-out cross-validation and combined with bespoke models of bathymetry and seabed slope using map algebra. The final model reveals areas of relative probable seabed stability based on geological and geomorphological characteristics and is shown to comport with known conditions in several locations. Results suggest that the methods and results presented here could provide useful information to future planning activities and initial site selection assessments.