Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source perspective

Abstract

Abstract. Here we present a pilot study of the sensitivity of summer monsoon precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV; 110–122∘ E and 27–33∘ N, eastern China) to climatic boundary conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), pre-industrial conditions, and the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 emission scenario from two different climate models. Using a quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic based on backward trajectories, we are able to interpret changes in precipitation amount and seasonality in terms of processes at the source regions and during transport that contribute to YRV precipitation. Thereby, we gain insight into influential processes and characteristics related to precipitation variability and the sensitivity of the summer monsoon hydroclimate in East Asia to boundary-condition changes in models. Comparing 10-year time slices similar to present-day conditions from the NorESM1-M and CAM5.1 models to reanalysis data reveals overall similar moisture source regions, albeit with a tendency for a more local precipitation origin in the climate models. The general characteristics of the moisture sources and moisture transport in the YRV are relatively stable across different climate forcings, both concerning the mean location of source regions, transport distance, and the relative contributions of moisture from land and ocean areas. Changes regarding regional precipitation contributions from the East Asian continent indicate that precipitation recycling responds to different climate forcings. We interpret these findings such that models to first order respond with a scaling rather than reorganisation of the hydroclimate to climatic forcing, while land–atmosphere interactions play an important, but secondary, role. If the model simulations are accurate, the moisture source regions and thus the general processes of precipitation in the YRV could remain relatively stable across different climates. However, some differences in moisture source conditions are larger between the different climate models than between different climatic boundary conditions in the same model. It may therefore be possible that current climate models underestimate the potential for non-linear responses to changing boundary conditions, for example due to precipitation recycling. Although limited by the relatively short analysis period, our findings demonstrate that the diagnosis of moisture sources provides a useful additional perspective for understanding and quantifying precipitation mechanisms and the hydroclimate simulated by models and enables more detailed evaluation of model simulations, for example using paleoclimate records.