Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
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Published:2022-11-24
Issue:4
Volume:3
Page:1359-1379
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ISSN:2698-4016
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Container-title:Weather and Climate Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Weather Clim. Dynam.
Author:
Sainsbury Elliott MichaelORCID, Schiemann Reinhard K. H.ORCID, Hodges Kevin I., Baker Alexander J.ORCID, Shaffrey Len C.ORCID, Bhatia Kieran T., Bourdin StellaORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can cause extensive damage across
Europe through extreme winds and heavy precipitation. With increasing sea
surface temperatures, tropical cyclones (TCs) may form and travel further
poleward and eastward than observed historically. Recent work has
suggested that the frequency of intense Europe-impacting PTCs may increase
substantially in the future. Using an objective feature-tracking scheme and TC identification method, we
track and identify the full life cycle of TCs in the North Atlantic in five
CMIP6 climate models in the historical (1984–2014) period and in the future
under the SSP5-85 scenario (2069–2099). These five models are selected based
on their ability to simulate TC frequency similar to observed in the North
Atlantic, although model deficiencies remain. We find no robust changes in Europe-impacting PTC frequency or intensity in
the future. This is because two competing factors – a significant decrease
in TC frequency of 30 %–60 % and an increase in the proportion of TCs
reaching Europe – are approximately the same size. The projected increase
in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe is largely driven by an increase in
the likelihood of recurvature and is consistent with projected decreases in
vertical wind shear and increases in potential intensity along the US East
Coast in the future. The projected increased likelihood of recurvature is
also associated with a shift in TC genesis away from the main development
region, where model biases cause very few TCs to recurve. This study
indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and
provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate
models.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Grand Équipement National De Calcul Intensif Commissariat Général à l'Investissement
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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