Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, Southern Italy, in the 20th century

Author:

Gariano S. L.ORCID,Petrucci O.ORCID,Guzzetti F.ORCID

Abstract

Abstract. We exploit a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides in the 90 year period 1921–2010 to study temporal and geographical variations in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria, Southern Italy. We use daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges to reconstruct 448 493 rainfall events. Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL) in Calabria from 1921 to 2010, where a REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period. The average and the maximum values of the cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent-most 30 year period 1981–2010 are lower than the values necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the rainfall events that triggered landslides has remained the same. This can be considered evidence of variations in rainfall conditions, but also an increase in the vulnerability of the territory. We further find that the yearly distribution of rainfall-induced landslides has changed in the observation period, analysing the variations in the number of rainfall events with landslides occurred in each month in three 30 year periods. To investigate variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria, with the size of the population in the municipalities, measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. For the purpose, we adopted two strategies. The first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL/P and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. Considering the entire observation period, IREL and RREL have both increased in Calabria. However, considering the changes between the recent period 1981–2010 and the previous period 1951–1980, results are more variegated with a number of municipalities where IREL and RREL have increased, or decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts.

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

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