Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model

Abstract

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial predictability source on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale. Therefore, the models participating in the World Weather Research Programme and the World Climate Research Programme (WWRP/WCRP) S2S prediction project focus on accurately predicting and analyzing the MJO. This study provides a detailed description of the configuration within the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS) S2S forecast system. We assess the accuracy of the IAP-CAS model's MJO forecast using traditional Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) analysis and cluster analysis. Then, we explain the reasons behind any bias observed in the MJO forecast. Comparing the 20-year hindcast with observations, we found that the IAP-CAS ensemble mean has a skill of 24 d. However, the ensemble spread still has potential for improvement. To examine the MJO structure in detail, we use cluster analysis to classify the MJO events during boreal winter into four types: fast-propagating, slow-propagating, standing, and jumping patterns of MJO. The model exhibits biases of overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed in the propagating MJO events. Upon further analysis, it was found that the model forecasted a wetter background state. This leads to stronger forecasted convection and coupled waves, especially in the fast MJO events. The overestimation of the strength and length of MJO-coupled waves results in a faster MJO mode and quicker dissipation in the IAP-CAS model. These findings show that the IAP-CAS skillfully forecasts signals of MJO and its propagation, and they also provide valuable guidance for improving the current MJO forecast by developing the ensemble system and moisture forecast.