Evaluating the Atibaia River hydrology using JULES6.1

Abstract

Abstract. Land surface models such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are increasingly used for hydrological assessments because of their state-of-the-art representation of physical processes and versatility. Unlike statistical models and AI models, the JULES model simulates the physical water flux under given meteorological conditions, allowing us to understand and investigate the cause and effect of environmental changes. Here we explore the possibility of this approach using a case study in the Atibaia River basin, which serves as a major water supply for metropolitan regions of Campinas and São Paulo, Brazil. The watershed is suffering increasing hydrological risks, which could be attributed to environmental changes, such as urbanization and agricultural activity. The increasing risks highlight the importance of evaluating the land surface processes of the watershed systematically. We explore the use of local precipitation collection in conjunction with data from a global meteorological reanalysis to simulate the basin hydrology. Our results show that key hydrological fluxes in the basin can be represented by the JULES model simulations.