Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
-
Published:2022-07-04
Issue:13
Volume:15
Page:5073-5092
-
ISSN:1991-9603
-
Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Hitchcock PeterORCID, Butler AmyORCID, Charlton-Perez Andrew, Garfinkel Chaim I.ORCID, Stockdale Tim, Anstey James, Mitchell DannORCID, Domeisen Daniela I. V.ORCID, Wu TongwenORCID, Lu YixiongORCID, Mastrangelo DanieleORCID, Malguzzi Piero, Lin HaiORCID, Muncaster Ryan, Merryfield BillORCID, Sigmond Michael, Xiang Baoqiang, Jia Liwei, Hyun Yu-Kyung, Oh Jiyoung, Specq DamienORCID, Simpson Isla R., Richter Jadwiga H., Barton Cory, Knight Jeff, Lim Eun-Pa, Hendon Harry
Abstract
Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts.
Funder
H2020 European Research Council Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Reference86 articles.
1. Afargan-Gerstman, H., Polkova, I., Papritz, L., Ruggieri, P., King, M. P., Athanasiadis, P. J., Baehr, J., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020. a 2. Anstey, J. A., Scinocca, J. F., and Keller, M.: Simulating the QBO in an
Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Sensitivity to Resolved and
Parameterized Forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1649–1665,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0099.1, 2016. a 3. Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido‐Perez, J. M., Abalos, M., de la Cámara, A., García‐Herrera, R., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079802, 2018. a 4. Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H.,
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H.,
Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden
Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a 5. Butler, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I., Garfinkel, C., Gerber, E. P., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Maycock, A. C., Sigmond, M., Simpson, I., and Son, S.-W.: Chapter 11 – Sub-seasonal Predictability and the
Stratosphere, in: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, edited by: Robertson, A. W. and Vitart, F., Elsevier, 223–241,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00011-5, 2019. a, b
Cited by
6 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|