Abstract
Abstract. New regulations from the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) limiting sulfur emissions from the shipping industry are
expected to have large benefits in terms of public health but may come with
an undesired side effect: acceleration of global warming as the
climate-cooling effects of ship pollution on marine clouds are diminished.
Previous work has found a substantial decrease in the detection of ship
tracks in clouds after the IMO 2020 regulations went into effect, but changes
in large-scale cloud properties have been more equivocal. Using a
statistical technique that estimates counterfactual fields of what
large-scale cloud and radiative properties within an isolated shipping
corridor in the southeastern Atlantic would have been in the absence of
shipping, we confidently detect a reduction in the magnitude of cloud
droplet effective radius decreases within the shipping corridor and find
evidence for a reduction in the magnitude of cloud brightening as well. The
instantaneous radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions from the
IMO 2020 regulations is estimated as O(1 W m−2) within the shipping
corridor, lending credence to global estimates of O(0.1 W m−2). In
addition to their geophysical significance, our results also provide
independent evidence for general compliance with the IMO 2020 regulations.
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