ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement
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Published:2023-11-14
Issue:6
Volume:14
Page:1165-1169
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ISSN:2190-4987
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Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Duffey AlistairORCID, Mallett RobbieORCID, Irvine Peter J.ORCID, Tsamados Michel, Stroeve Julienne
Abstract
Abstract. The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council European Space Agency
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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