Intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers: resilience and proximity to critical points of seawater intrusion

Abstract

Abstract. We investigate here seawater intrusion in three prominent Mediterranean aquifers that are subject to intensive exploitation and modified hydrologic regimes by human activities: the Nile Delta Aquifer, the Israel Coastal Aquifer and the Cyprus Akrotiri Aquifer. Using a generalized analytical sharp-interface model, we review the salinization history and current status of these aquifers, and quantify their resilience/vulnerability to current and future sea intrusion forcings. We identify two different critical limits of sea intrusion under groundwater exploitation and/or climatic stress: a limit of well intrusion, at which intruded seawater reaches key locations of groundwater pumping, and a tipping point of complete sea intrusion upto the prevailing groundwater divide of a coastal aquifer. Either limit can be reached, and ultimately crossed, under intensive aquifer exploitation and/or climate-driven change. We show that sea intrusion vulnerability for different aquifer cases can be directly compared in terms of normalized intrusion performance curves. The site-specific assessments show that the advance of seawater currently seriously threatens the Nile Delta Aquifer and the Israel Coastal Aquifer. The Cyprus Akrotiri Aquifer is currently somewhat less threatened by increased seawater intrusion.