Controls on oxygen dynamics in a riverine salt-wedge estuary – a three-dimensional model of the Yarra River estuary, Australia

Abstract

Abstract. Oxygen depletion in estuarine waters is an important factor governing water quality and ecological health. A complex and dynamic balance of physical and biogeochemical factors drive the extent and persistence of hypoxia and anoxia making it difficult to predict. An increased understanding of the effect of changing flow regimes and temperature on patterns of estuarine oxygen depletion is required to support ongoing management. Coupled physical and biogeochemical models have been applied to study the interaction of physical processes and seasonal hypoxia, however, application to riverine estuaries with tight curvature and more sporadic periods of oxygen depletion is rare. In this study we apply a finite volume 3-D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (TUFLOW-FV–FABM) to the Yarra River estuary, Australia, in order to predict the extent of salt-wedge intrusion and consequent patterns of oxygen depletion. The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated using a series of model verification metrics and the results evaluated to determine the dominant mechanisms affecting salt-wedge position and the extent and persistence of anoxia and hypoxia. Measures of model fit indicated that the model reasonably captured the strength of stratification and the position and extent of the salt wedge (r2 ~ 0.74). The extent of the salt wedge intrusion was controlled by riverine flow and the strength of stratification or mixing dominated by topographical features corresponding to areas of tight curvature ("horseshoe" bends). The model predicted that the extent of anoxic waters generally mimicked the extent of the salt wedge (r2 ~ 0.65) increasing during periods of low flow and reduced following episodic high flow events. The results showed two sporadically isolated "hot spots" of anoxia, the first downstream of the horseshoe bend and the second downstream of a sill. Simulated oxygen concentrations indicated that whilst a threshold salt wedge intrusion was a requirement of oxygen depletion, temperature was critical in determining the extent of hypoxia and anoxia in the estuary. These findings highlight the importance of how seasonal changes in flow events and environmental flow management can impact on estuarine oxygen depletion in a warming climate. This study provides an improved understanding of the controls on hypoxia and anoxia in riverine estuaries, which is essential to support improved prediction of nutrient dynamics and ecological heath.