Anomalous North Pacific subtropical mode water volume and density decrease in a recent stable Kuroshio Extension period from Argo observations

Abstract

Abstract. North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW) is formed as a low-stratification water mass in the wintertime mixed layer south of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). In a recent period of 2018–2021, the KE jet was in a persistent stable dynamic state. But based on analysis of Argo observation, the mean volume of NPSTMW in the ventilation region dropped anomalously by ∼ 21 % during 2018–2021 relative to 2012–2015, when the KE jet was likewise stable. Moreover, the NPSTMW volume in a denser density range (approximately σθ>25.2 kg m−3) has started to decrease since 2018. The decreases in the NPSTMW subduction and formation rate are associated with anomalously shallow wintertime mixed-layer depth (MLD) and weak heat loss in the NPSTMW formation region. The decrease in air–sea heat exchange acts to weaken the vertical mixing and decrease the MLD, resulting in the weakening of subduction. The interannual variations in the air–sea heat exchange and wintertime MLD reflect the variability in the overlying atmosphere, which is correlated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shift in 2018–2021. When the PDO shifted from its positive phase to a negative phase in the analysis period, the effects of local wind stress anomalies seemed to play an evident role in driving the variability in NPSTMW on interannual timescales. The MLD and heat loss change during the cold season in 2018–2021 were strongly coupled with the poleward shift of the westerlies – which cause weaker wintertime wind and easterly wind anomalies over the NPSTMW formation region. The declines in heat loss and southward Ekman transport, owing to the wind stress anomalies, further prohibit upper-ocean convection and mixed-layer deepening and cooling. Additionally, the insufficient development of wintertime MLD in 2018–2021 may also be associated with the significantly intensified preconditioning of near-surface stratification (< 150 m depth) due to the persistent near-surface warming and the weak vertical entrainment process in winter.