Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study
Author:
Simpson D.ORCID, Andersson C., Christensen J.H., Engardt M., Geels C.ORCID, Nyiri A., Posch M., Soares J., Sofiev M., Wind P.ORCID, Langner J.
Abstract
Abstract. The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N-compounds. One model (EMEP) was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems which exceed critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase).
Funder
European Commission
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Reference109 articles.
1. Aas, W., Tsyro, S., Bieber, E., Bergström, R., Ceburnis, D., Ellermann, T., Fagerli, H., Frölich, M., Gehrig, R., Makkonen, U., Nemitz, E., Otjes, R., Perez, N., Perrino, C., Prévôt, A. S. H., Putaud, J.-P., Simpson, D., Spindler, G., Vana, M., and Yttri, K. E.: Lessons learnt from the first EMEP intensive measurement periods, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8073–8094, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-8073-2012, 2012. 2. Amann, M., Klimont, Z., and Wagner, F.: Regional and global emissions of air pollutants: recent trends and future scenarios, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 38, 31–55, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-052912-173303, 2013. 3. Andersson, C. and Engardt, M.: European ozone in a future climate: importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011690, 2010. 4. Andersson, C., Langner, J., and Bergstrom, R.: Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958-2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis, Tellus B, 59, 77–98, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00196.x, 2007. 5. Asman, W. A. H., Sørensen, L. L., Berkowicz, R., Granby, K., Nielsen, H., Jensen, B., Runge, E., Lykkelund, C., Gryning, S. E., and Sempreviva, A. M.: Dry deposition processes, Danish Environmental Protection Agency, Marine Research, 35, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1994.
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|