How sensitive is the recovery of stratospheric ozone to changes in concentrations of very short lived bromocarbons?

Abstract

Abstract. Naturally produced very short-lived substances (VSLS), like bromocarbons, account for almost a quarter of the current stratospheric inorganic bromine, Bry. Following VSLS oxidation, bromine radicals (Br and BrO) can catalytically destroy ozone. The extent to which possible increases in surface emissions or transport of these VSLS bromocarbons to the stratosphere could counteract the effect of halogen reductions under the Montreal Protocol is an important policy question. Here by using a chemistry–climate model, UM-UKCA, we investigate the impact of a hypothetical increase in VSLS on ozone and how that impact depends on the background concentrations of chlorine and bromine. Our model experiments indicate that for a ~5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the local ozone loss in the lowermost stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) may reach up to 10% in the annual mean; the ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is smaller (4–6%). There is more ozone loss following an increase in VSLS burden under a high stratospheric chlorine background than under a low chlorine background indicating the importance of the inter-halogen reactions. For example, the rate of decline of the stratospheric ozone concentration as a function of Bry is higher by about 30–40% when stratospheric Cly is ~3 ppb (present day) compared with Cly of ~0.8 ppb (apre-industrial or projected future situation). Although bromine plays an important role in destroying ozone, inorganic chlorine is the dominant halogen compound. Even if bromine levels from natural VSLS were to increase significantly later this century, changes in the concentration of ozone will be dominated by the recovery of anthropogenic chlorine. Our calculation suggests that for a 5 ppt increase in Bry from VSLS, the Antarctic ozone hole recover date could be delayed by approximately 7 years.