Predicting tidal heights for extreme environments: from 25 h observations to accurate predictions at Jang Bogo Antarctic Research Station, Ross Sea, Antarctica

Abstract

Abstract. Accurate tidal height data for the seas around Antarctica are much needed, given the crucial role of these tides in the regional and global ocean, marine cryosphere, and climate processes. However, obtaining long-term sea level records for traditional tidal predictions is extremely difficult around ice-affected coasts. This study evaluates the ability of a relatively new tidal-species-based approach, the complete tidal species modulation with tidal constant corrections (CTSM + TCC) method, to accurately predict tides for a temporary observation station in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, using a record from a neighbouring reference station characterised by a similar tidal regime. Predictions for the “mixed, mainly diurnal” regime of Jang Bogo Antarctic Research Station (JBARS) were made and evaluated based on summertime (2017; and 2018 to 2019) short-term (25 h) observations at this temporary station, along with tidal prediction data derived from year-long observations (2013) from the neighbouring “diurnal” regime of Cape Roberts (ROBT). Results reveal the CTSM + TCC method can produce accurate (to within ∼5 cm root mean square errors) tidal predictions for JBARS when using short-term (25 h) tidal data from periods with higher-than-average tidal ranges (i.e. those at high lunar declinations). We demonstrate how to determine optimal short-term data collection periods based on the Moon's declination and/or the modulated amplitude ratio and phase lag difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal species predicted from CTSM at ROBT (i.e. the reference tidal station). The importance of using long-period tides to improve tidal prediction accuracy is also considered and, finally, the unique tidal regimes of the Ross Sea examined in this paper are situated within a wider Antarctic tidal context using Finite Element Solution 2014 (FES2014) model data.