Effects of transient processes for thermal simulations of the Central European Basin

Abstract

Abstract. Transient processes play a major role in geophysical applications. In this paper, we quantify the significant influence arising from transient processes for conductive heat transfer problems for sedimentary basin systems. We demonstrate how the thermal properties are affected when changing the system from a stationary to a non-stationary (transient) state and what impact time-dependent boundary conditions (as derived from paleoclimate information) have on the system's overall response. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of the time-stepping approach adopted to numerically solve for the transient case and the overall simulation duration since both factors exert a direct influence on the sensitivities of the thermal properties. We employ global sensitivity analyses to quantify not only the impact arising from the thermal properties but also their parameter correlations. Furthermore, we showcase how the results of such sensitivity analysis can be used to gain further insights into the complex Central European Basin System in central and northern Europe. This computationally very demanding workflow becomes feasible through the construction of high-precision surrogate models based on the reduced basis (RB) method.