The influence of environmental and economic turbulence on civil construction in the region

Abstract

This article is devoted to the analysis and forecasting of the development of civil engineering in the region in the context of recurring macro-shocks that create political and economic turbulence. The dynamics of the commercial real estate market in St. Petersburg have been studied. The purpose of the article is to study the influence of various factors (including vacancy levels) on market price indicators and to predict the dynamics of its development. Objectives of the study: analyse office, retail, and warehouse real estate in the city, study the degree of influence of the vacancy rate of objects on the market situation; build a forecast of the dynamics of market development, considering the influence of the dynamics of the share of vacant space; identify market trends in an unstable economic situation. The result of the study is a forecast of the dynamics of development of the commercial real estate market in St. Petersburg and, accordingly, civil construction in this region. Based on regression analysis, factors influencing the dynamics of price indicators for commercial premises were identified. The study confirmed the hypothesis about the connection between the dynamics of commercial real estate market segments and key events in the economy. This suggests the need to identify time stages at which the composition and number of key factors changes. The study shows that different segments of the commercial real estate market react differently to the level of vacancy, which is due to their specific functioning.