Soil carbon and land use dynamics in the greater part of Cerrado biome, Brazil

Abstract

This study is aimed at assessing the dynamics of soil carbon (C) and land-use in the greater part of Cerrado biome between 2015 and 2020, and to predict the future scenario. Increasing anthropogenic activities, especially agriculture, has significantly impacted land-use, consequently the balance inflow and outflow of carbon under different land use. Data on soil C, land use-land cover (LULC), and other variables were collected from USGS EarthData, FAO, and Mapbiomas. By applying support vector machine and InVEST models, we identified the LULC and quantified the soil C stocks under each land use. Pastures (2,016,793 km2) and savanna (1,789,150 km2) covered more than 70% of entire biome. Significant landuse transitions occurred between 2015 and 2025 with croplands increasing by more than 10% in area. Integrated agricultural system (IAS) accounted for ~ 40% more SOC stock than business as usual (BAU). Unlike the BAU which involves the conventional farming systems, the IAS is a low-carbon agricultural practice which serves as a nature-based solution to enhance C sequestration. The findings from the study might contribute to closing the gap in knowledge about soil C stocks in the region, and in smart-climate agriculture agendas to improve carbon stocks, food security and other SDGs.