Keynote lecture. Landslide Early Warning Systems: Resources or Problems?

Abstract

Recent estimates suggest that landslides occur in about 17.1% of the landmasses, that about 8.2% of the global population live in landslide prone areas, and that population exposure to landslides is expected to increase. It is threfore not surprising that landslide early warning is gaining attention in the scientific and the technical literature, and among decision makers. Thanks to important scientific and technological advancements, landslide prediction and early warning are now possible, and landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are becoming valuable resources for risk mitigation. A review of geographical LEWSs examined 26 regional, national and global systems in the 44.5-year period from January 1977 to June 2019. The study relevaled that only five nations, 13 regions, and four metropolitan areas benefited from operational LEWSs, and that large areas where landslide risk to the population is high lack LEWS coverage. The review also revealed that the rate of LEWSs deployment has increased in the recent years, but remains low, and that reniewed efforts are needed to accelerate the deployment of LEWSs. Building on the review, recommendations for the further development and improvement of geographical LEWSs are proposed. The recommendations cover six areas, including design, deployment, and operation of LEWS; collection and analysis of landslide and rainfall data used to design, operate, and validate LEWSs; landslide forecast models and advisories used in LEWSs; LEWSs evaluation and performance assessment; operation and management; and communication and dissemination. LEWSs are complex and multi-faceted systems that require care in their design, implementation and operation. To avoid failures that can lead to loss of credibility and liability consequences, it is critical that the community of scientists and professionals who design, implement and operate LEWSs takes all necessary precautions, guided by rigorous scientific practices.