Historical, Recent, and Future Threat of Drought on Agriculture in East Java, Indonesia: A Review

Abstract

Climate change intensifies hydroclimate variability, leading to more frequent and severe drought, which pose significant challenges to water, food, and energy security. Droughts are complex natural hazards that area difficult to predict spatially and temporally. East Java, with its historically extreme droughts and reliance on agriculture, exemplifies these challenges. This study investigates the definition, measurement, driving mechanisms, and historical and future projections of drought occurrences in the region. Notably, a strong correlation is observed between El Niño and drought events, predominantly impacting the northern areas that heavily depend on rice irrigation. East Java’s prolonged dry season and limited rainfall exacerbate the recurring threat of extreme drought. With global warming amplifying these patterns, urgent action is imperative. This paper highlights the need for a comprehensive understanding of drought dynamics to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies of agricultural activity. By examining the interplay between climate phenomena, rainfall patterns, and droughts impacts on agriculture, valuable insights are gained to foster sustainable water resource management and build resilience to drought in East Java.