Imitation of the impact of external factors in the modeling of innovation-oriented regional socio-economic systems

Abstract

The regions of the Russian Federation function and develop in conditions of instability and uncertainty of the external strategic environment. Therefore, each region tries to develop optimal strategies for its innovation oriented development on the principles of efficiency and minimizing uncertainty (risk). At the same time, it is important not just to form a strategic set of alternatives for the development of the region, but it is important at every moment to know at what stage of development the region is, how close it is to the strategic goal of its development. Analysis of studies on strategic planning and management, shows the lack of a single accepted methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of regional strategies and general approaches to formation of system of indicators of its assessment. Nevertheless, the majority of researchers agree that it is important to assess not whether the implementation of the developed strategy is carried out correctly or not, but it is important to assess how close the implementation of the innovation oriented strategy is to the goals set for the region. Indicative planning is an important tool for regulating the processes of socio-economic development at the regional level. In modern conditions, the world economy is experiencing an increase in the level of negative impact of various external factors and major challenges to economic actors, including regions. The article substantiates the conceptual scheme of the imitation model of the regional socio-economic system, which takes into account not only the subjects and objects of management, but also the impact of the external environment. A method of increasing the realism of imitation models of the regional innovation oriented socio-economic system is proposed – the use of a random choice of one of the options for adaptation to a given external factor. Within the framework of this model, it is proposed to allocate the following macro-regional blocks (objects of regional management): income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, Finance. In this case, the control regulation within the framework of the proposed model is carried out on the basis of an indicative plan, which sets goals, objectives and indicators of regional innovation oriented socio-economic development.