Forecast China’s monthly urban fixed asset investment based on the ARIMA model

Abstract

In recent years, as China’s urbanization level has risen, China’s urban fixed asset investment has also been rising. Judging from monthly data, China’s urban fixed asset investment has shown a volatile upward trend, with an obvious 11-month cycle. And in each cycle, the fluctuation range of the investment amount is getting larger. This paper uses an ARIMA model with an additive seasonal effect to fit the monthly urban fixed asset investment sequence and predict the future investment. In the end, this paper established a fitting model for China’s urban fixed asset investment, and obtained a good forecasting effect.