Identification of the similarity of urban mobility country patterns during the period of COVID restrictions: methodology and results

Abstract

The term “Black Swan” by N. Taleb (Taleb, 2007) well illustrates a sudden, negatively manifesting itself in relation to the surrounding world factor. Actively used since 2015, this concept implies a shock impact on economic and production systems, which include transport and logistics systems. COVID-19 and its negative manifestations are a good example of such a 'black swan’. The serious crisis of the world economic system, which began in February-March 2020 and lasted about 450-600 days, was caused by a total restriction of elementary physical contacts between people and any manifestations of their pedestrian and transport mobility associated with it. The widespread lockdowns served this very purpose. However, lockdowns varied across countries in terms of timing, duration, methodological approaches, the strength of restrictions, and control measures. As a result, the mobility of the urban population varied with the influence of the external environment and was not identical in different cities. This paper presents the results of comparative studies of the urban population mobility dynamics in three European cities: two cities of one country – Moscow and St. Petersburg, and another European capital – Amsterdam. At the same time, the goal was to identify the urban mobility country patterns similarity during the period of COVID restrictions. Two tasks were solved: a cross-country comparison of trends in urban population mobility during 2020-2021 and a comparison of trends in population mobility in two cities of the same country.