Decision support for preliminary release of reservoir for flood control using ECMWF medium-range ensemble rainfall forecast

Author:

Nohara Daisuke,Kitani Kazuhiro,Michihiro Yuri,Sumi Tetsuya

Abstract

A method for integrated reservoir operation is developed by considering medium-range ensemble rainfall forecast provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to enhance reservoir’s flood storage capability while maintaining its function for water use. Preliminary release operation, in which storage water for water use is released just before a flood occurs, is considered here. The desired timing and amount of preliminary release are estimated from ensemble prediction, maximizing the flood control capacity while securing storage recovery after the flood event. The case study with Shin-Nariwagawa Reservoir in the Takahashi River basin, Japan, demonstrated the effectiveness of introducing long-range ensemble prediction in decision making for preliminary release.

Publisher

EDP Sciences

Subject

General Medicine

Reference15 articles.

1. Nohara D., Kojiri T., Smith P.J., Heuristic DSS for reservoir operation considering global meteorological information, in Floods, from Defence to Management, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp. 361-370 (2005)

2. Amai Y., Nohara D., Prior release operation of a multipurpose reservoir for flood control based on accuracy assessment of real-time hydrological prediction, in Proc. 19th Congress of the Asia Pacific Division of International Association for HydroEnvironment Engineering and Research, IAHR-APD, 21-24 September 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam (2014)

3. Masuda H., Oishi S., Study on optimization of the integrated operation of dams using ensemble prediction in the upper reaches of the Nabari River, in Proc. 35th World Congress of International Association of Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, IAHR, 8-13 September 2013, Chengdu, China, S10065 (2013)

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