Research on the effectiveness of transportation infrastructure maintenance based on the risk process

Abstract

In order to improve the efficiency of transportation infrastructure maintenance, it is proposed to introduce an insurance fund that performs two functions: accumulation of payments with different frequency and cost for performing various types of maintenance; pays for these types of maintenance as necessary. To mathematically describe the state of the insurance fund, it is proposed to use a special type of risk process. This approach allowed us to introduce maintenance performance indicators in the form of resource-cost and financial risks, taking into account the possibility of non-performance of maintenances due to lack of financial resources. A modeling program based on the event approach was created in the MATLAB environment to study these indicators. Computational experiments with the modeling program allowed us to draw conclusions that, in order to minimize the risk values, preference should be given to the option when the shares and frequency of payments to the insurance fund are determined based on the type of maintenance and initial data.