Attempts to establish a regional probabilistic model of intense rainfall for the Upper and Middle Oder River basin

Abstract

The main scope of this study was to present the possibility of developing a heavy rainfall regional model, based on a probabilistic approach. Following the methods and conclusions of the scientific and technical work of the research team in the Upper and Middle Oder basin, carried out on rainfall data between 1961 and 2010, it was found that the generalized exponential distribution enables a satisfactory probabilistic description of heavy rainfall, and the results of the models constructed on its basis are obtained in an accessible and not time-consuming way. The regional model presented in the article sufficiently describes the empirical heavy rainfall at eight analyzed meteorological stations, especially in the range of rainfall amounts occurring most frequently from a statistical point of view, i.e. with the p-value from 0.3 to 1.0.