Modelling the impacts of challenging 2030 DPRK’s GHGs mitigation targets on DPRK’s energy system

Abstract

The DPRK ratified the Paris Agreement on 1st August 2016 and fully committed to achieving goals for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) which was submitted on 3rd October 2016. The DPRK’s INDC includes a mitigation and an adaptation component. In the mitigation component, as unconditional contribution, DPRK intends to achieve with domestic resources the reduction of GHG emissions by 8% by 2030 as compared to Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Moreover, the conditional contributions are measures that could be implemented if additional international financial support, technology transfer and capacity building are received. The national contribution could be increased up to 40% with international support. This paper focuses on these mitigation targets for DPRK by an interesting case study of GHG emissions for a 12 year period from 1990 to 2002. We proposed the DPRK’s GHGs mitigation model by analyzing the Irish TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System) energy systems modelling tool, and proved the technical availability of CO2-8 scenario delivering an 8% emissions reduction target by 2030. We then compared the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy.