Construction of a project risk assessment model based on a probabilistic simulation approach

Abstract

Manifestations of risk in the economic sphere of human activity have entailed numerous definitions and interpretations, a significant part of which are associated with two statements: a) risk is caused by random events outside the sphere of influence of the risk subject;b) the economic consequences of these events are undesirable or unacceptable for him.An ambiguous interpretation of the original concept leads to an incorrect formulation of the problem of formalizing the process of optimizing investment projects.The paper provides an analysis of the possibility of resolving the problem using a simulation-probabilistic approach.