Estimation of the prevalence of diabetes and study of some socio-demographic determinants among the diabetic population in Salé, Morocco-2021

Abstract

According to the World Health Organization, diabetes is the cause of 1.5 million deaths each year, 80% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. It will become the principal cause of death by 2030. In Morocco, the situation is as alarming as at the global level. However, the prevalence of diabetes at the provincial level is unknown. This paper aims to present partial results obtained from a statistical study, carried out in February 2021, where we estimated the prevalence of diabetes and studied some socio-demographic determinants among the diabetic population living in Salé, Morocco. The investigation included a sample of 488 households selected according to a two-stage stratified probabilistic sampling plan (466 of which were surveyed (i.e. 1868 individuals) with a response rate of 466/488 =95.5%). The results showed that, in 2021, diabetes was affecting 5.5% (95% CI 4.5%, 6.6%) of the studied population (5.8% of women and 5.1% of men, 5.6% in urban areas and 4.5% in rural areas). The proportion of diabetics increases significantly with age (p-value=0.0001<0.05). It was 0.1% among young people (<18 years), 3.9% among individuals aged 18-59, and 26.9% among those aged 60 and above. A logistic model, making it possible to predict, with an accuracy of 91.7%, the risk of contracting diabetes among the population aged 18 and above (1,308 subjects, 7.8% of which were diabetic), was performed. The model included several socio-demographic determinants. Age, educational level, economic activity, average household income and smoking were significantly associated with diabetes.