Multiple Scenario Simulations of Land Use in Guangzhou City Based on the PLUS Model: Strategies for Sustainable Urban Planning

Abstract

Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, this study employs the Patch-based Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to investigate land use dynamics in Guangzhou City over the last twenty years. The analysis reveals significant conversion of agricultural and forest lands into urban construction sites, driven by a complex interplay of natural and socio-economic factors. The PLUS model’s scenario simulations highlight the challenges of urban expansion on ecological spaces and sustainability. Findings suggest that Guangzhou City should adopt comprehensive land planning strategies that balance urban growth with ecological conservation. This involves implementing strict land use planning, optimizing urban layouts, and promoting ecologically friendly urban development methods. These recommendations aim to facilitate sustainable urban planning in Guangzhou, ensuring a harmonious coexistence between urban development and environmental preservation.