Factors affecting the transition of the Polish power system

Abstract

Energy systems face radical –almost revolutionary changes which, however, will be stretched over the long period. The critical factors influencing the future development of the Polish power sector are discussed in this paper. Development of intermittent energy supplies from renewable energy sources imposes a challenge on the entire power system and requires specific adaptations and responses from traditional generation units. Up to the present time they have been used to work in the stable mode while now they need more operational flexibility. The share of RES constantly increases. On one hand, this has a very positive environmental impact, but on the other it disturbs economics of classical generation units. Also liberalized electricity markets are impacted and the risks in power investments have increased. The capacity market could constitute a remedy, which will incentivise the investments necessary to fill the gap created by closing exhausted and inefficient plants. On the consumer side electromobility could change the demand, not only in quantity but also in terms of load profile. Climate policy tends to detriment coal based generation. For countries abundant in coal resources which make use of this cheap fuel, such as Poland, the question arises about its future role. Even in the most coal-supportive scenarios revised in this paper its relative share in electricity generation does not exceed 50% in 2050 while in others it rather goes much below 30%. .