Invasion of Erigeron annuus (L.) Pers. in the hay and pasture meadows of the Greater Caucasus: modeling of the current and predicted distribution

Abstract

Erigeron annuus (L.) Pers is a North American invasive species that invades hay meadows and pastures from the plain to the high mountainous zone of the Caucasus. Leads to a decrease in biodiversity and forage value of meadows. Predictive modeling using the MaxEnt method showed that at present, in the valleys of large rivers of the Caucasus, there are significant areas potentially suitable for the growth of this species (only 10.4 thousand km2). The spatial distribution of E. annuus is limited by the wind speed in January (no more than 2.6 m/s), the maximum temperature in April (13-16 °C), the amount of precipitation in the wettest months (80-100 mm) and quarter (240-260 mm). In accordance with the predicted trends of climatic changes, by 2050 the total area of habitats suitable for the species may be doubled (up to 20.3 km2).