Evaluation of Geological Risks of Commercial Development of Complex Structured Coal Deposits

Abstract

The main risk in the commercial development of complex located coal deposits is a geological risk, which is assessed by the results of coal resources classification at sufficient confidence. In conditions of complex located coal deposits, the main factor which determines categories of coal Reserves is the confidence of geological structural data, a reliable estimation of which is provided only with the use of quantitative methods. The use of conventional geostatistical and geometrical approaches to the reserves categorization in this kind of deposits is impossible. The confidence of complex located coal deposits is proposed to be quantitatively evaluated by the similarity degree of seams position on the adjacent exploration lines. This similarity is estimated with a special similarity coefficient varying from 0 to 1, determined based on curves correlation, which is adapted to the problem-solving method, in the complex plane. The obtained results provide the quality increase of the geological materials confidence evaluation and can be used to solve issues of the geological risk evaluation of the development of complex located coal deposits, during commercial or state expertise of geological information.