Coal cluster as a structural factor in the development of Kuzbass

Abstract

The article contains the results of the analysis of dynamics and structural transformations of employment and production of gross value added (GVA), carried out by the authors on the material of Kuzbass. The study was carried out using the shift-share analysis for 2007–2018. We can state that the employment dynamics, which was negative during this period, was determined primarily by regional factors. The dynamics of GVA was influenced by national (positive) and regional (negative) factors. The contribution of structural shifts to the growth of GVA over the past decade was negative and insignificant, and the decline in the number of employed occurred with a scarcely changed employment pattern. The coal cluster remains the core of the Kuzbass economy and retains the status of its most efficient sector – there are no obvious candidates for the role of a new leader. Meanwhile, the high dependence of the coal industry on external macroeconomic conditions, fluctuations in world markets, makes the strategic outlook of the entire region's economy vulnerable and unstable. Therefore, it is important to find and implement such model of the socio-economic transformation of Kuzbass, which will help protect and ensure the stability of the region for decades to come.