Optimization Analysis of Energy Structure in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province Based on Carbon Peak Constraints

Abstract

As China's economic development has entered a new normal, it is in China’s self-interest to achieve carbon peaking before 2030. and the decomposition and analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions are not only conducive to predicting the peaking time of carbon emissions, but also crucial to develop differentiated emission reduction policies in Jinhua. This paper firstly decomposes and analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Jinhua based on LMDI decomposition technology and hidden Markov chain, and then the dynamic relationship among the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Jinhua is explored by the panel vector autoregressive model. In addition, this paper also uses STIRPAT model to forecast and analyze the peaking time of carbon emissions in Jinhua and puts forward targeted suggestions.