Modeling scenarios of extreme situations in the energy sector caused by cyber threats

Abstract

The paper considers the violation of cybersecurity as a possibility of a real impact (intentional or accidental) from cyberspace on the physical infrastructure of a digital energy facility. In energy security studies, such impacts are considered as extreme situations, including critical and emergency situations. A model of scenarios of extreme situations in the energy sector caused by cyber threats using Bayesian Belief Network and the stages of modeling are considered in more detail. The five main stages are i) modeling cyber threats vectors of intrusion and advance towards the target asset; ii) modeling an attack on a target system in the technological segment of the local area network; iii) modeling technogenic threats to energy security caused by cyber threats; iv) modeling consequences at the level of the facility system; v) modeling consequences at the level of the infrastructure. This approach allows one to build cause and effect relationships from vulnerabilities in the cyber environment to the consequences. Modeling stages are aimed at increasing the level of cyber situational awareness, which, in turn, related with energy security issues.