Production of sugar beet in Russian Federation: analysis and forecast

Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics of indicators characterizing the production of sugar beets in Russia. The Krasnodar region, the Penza region and the Russian Federation as a whole were chosen as the object of study, the sown areas, the gross harvest and the yield of sugar beet were chosen as the subject of the study, and the period from 2005 to 2022 was chosen as the time interval. At the first step of the work, a primary analysis of the studied dynamic series is carried out, which showed a stable growth of indicators with a maximum jump in 2010. Next, regressions are constructed that describe long-term trends in the development of processes, for which, in most cases, quadratic functions are chosen. The next step is modeling the cyclical component and developing multiplicative trend-seasonal models, the error of which was 7.4% -13.8%. As a result of the study, a forecast for the development of the industry for 2023-2024 is built.