The choice of mining development strategy based on the improved Bayes criterion

Abstract

The choice of mining development strategies is based on the main indicators of mining and geological conditions that characterize mineral deposits. The purpose of the research is to argue the application of the improved Bayes criterion when choosing rational mining development strategies by taking into account the complex mining and geological conditions. The methodology of decision-making in terms of managing geotechnical systems depends on whether or not the probabilities of the conditions and dynamics of the parameters of rocks and soils are known during the development of mineral deposits, as well as the construction of infrastructure facilities. If the probabilities are unknown, then there is the problem of making decisions in the conditions of uncertainty of the initial data to assess the efficiency of the mining enterprises. And if the probabilities are known, then we are dealing with the task of making decisions in conditions of risk and assess the safety of mining operations. The improvement of the Bayes criterion enables us to determine, with an acceptable range of changes in efficiency, a strategy which provides more likely an increase in economic efficiency compared to a strategy selected using the traditional Bayes criterion.