Abstract
Rural agriculture is an essential aspect of carbon emission reduction and sequestration and also has the potential to achieve “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality.” A DEA-Malmquist index model is used to estimate the technical progress of agriculture using panel data from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2021. The evolution trend and spatial correlation of agricultural and rural carbon emissions are measured based on the spatial and temporal dimensions. The dynamic panel spatial lag model was also used to empirically test the mechanism of agricultural technological progress affecting agricultural rural carbon emissions. The results show that: ① There are apparent evolutionary characteristics and spatial agglomeration of agricultural and rural carbon emissions, and carbon pollution between provinces shows a weakening trend ② Agricultural technological progress can effectively drive carbon emission reduction in agriculture and rural areas, and the improvement of the farmers’ income structure can effectively regulate the carbon emission reduction efficacy of the total factor productivity, technological efficiency, and technological upgrading ③ The negative spatial spillover effect of agricultural technological progress on carbon emissions is significant; when the introduction of the farmers’ income structure as an interaction term, the negative spatial spillover effect of agricultural technological progress is significant. The negative spatial spillover effect of agricultural technological progress on carbon emissions is significant; introducing farmers’ income structure as an interaction term weakens the negative spatial spillover effect.