Estimation of the origin-destination matrix from national road traffic data in Central Java Province using the least squares method

Abstract

Central Java Province has experienced increased movement due to economic, social, and cultural developments. This increased activity has caused transportation problems, highlighting the need for effective transportation planning. A commonly used method for transportation planning is the four-step technique. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the origin-destination (O-D) matrix for Central Java Province in 2022 and 2040. The traffic count method was utilized for calculating the O-D matrix in 2022, while the gravity method was employed for 2040. The results showed that the total movement for 2022 was 50,295 PCU/hour, while the projected amount for 2040 was 139,674 PCU/hour. In 2022, the action was primarily dominated by internal-internal trips, which account for 75% or 37,528 PCU/hour. In conclusion, the proposed approach has good validity, as indicated by a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.677.