Analysis of risk and threats to financial performance of enterprises in agro-industrial complex

Abstract

The article discusses the risk assessment methods of financial performance of an enterprise. The essence of the main risks typical in enterprises of agro-industrial complex is described, sources of risk and factors affecting the financial performance are identified. A logical and probabilistic model of the risk of financial performance of an enterprise is suggested; factors and events that initiate the loss of profit, a decrease in sales revenues and an increase in the costs of enterprises in the agro-industrial complex are revealed. A method for calculating the significant values of risk probability and security areas for the formation of the financial performance of an enterprise is presented. An algorithm for calculating the dependencies was developed and it makes it possible to assess the critical values of indicators of financial and economic activity of an enterprise and the level of risk and threats to financial performance. The expediency of use of the authors’ algorithm in order to optimize the amount and structure of costs and capital. It was stated that the suggested approach allows to monitor continuously the magnitude of risk and threats, to evaluate the effectiveness of measures which reduce the risk of having undesirable financial performance in an enterprise.