On chaotic state indications of time series of failure rate of overhead lines

Abstract

The accident rate of 500 kV overhead lines (OHL) of a large region on a long time interval is researched. Significant fluctuations in the values of their failure rate (failure frequency) are revealed. The specified parameter was analyzed using the mathematical apparatus of the theory of deterministic (dynamic) chaos. The fractality of the time series of the OHL failure rate was revealed, as well as the positiveness of its maximal Lyapunov exponent, which indicated the chaotic nature of the dynamic process under consideration. The insignificant (less than five years) depth of forecasting the reliability characteristics of overhead lines due to the indicated chaotic state is substantiated. This is an unfavorable factor that reduces the reliability of the reliability estimates of the main grid of power systems.