An Analysis of Correlation and Forecast of CZK to EUR in the Unstable Global World

Abstract

Research background: In the Czech Republic, the CZK/EUR currency pair is the most observed one not only by Czech consumers but also by Czech and foreign companies. Not only the political situation in the world and the foreign investors but also other variables have a significant influence on the CZK. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to analyse the development of the CZK/EUR exchange rate, to perform a correlation analysis of the CZK/EUR currency pair and to forecast its future development in today’s unstable global world affected by the Coronavirus pandemics. Methods: In order to fulfil the aim of the paper, the data of the CZK/EUR currency pair from the beginning of the year 1999 to mid-June 2020 was used. The correlation analysis and the forecast of the future development of the exchange rate are performed by means of the, in today’s globalized world very promising, technology of artificial neural networks. Findings & Value added: The analysis and the forecast of the exchange rate development is based on the time series model taking the previous value of the exchange rate and its previous volatility into consideration. The strongest propulsion power for the development of the CZK/EUR exchange rate will be the market atmosphere on the world’s markets and the associated capital transfer between risk assets and safe havens. Provided, that the current situation settled down definitively and the economy returned back to its normal state, it is probable that the Czech koruna would gain some part of its significant loss back within a medium-term period.