Forecasting the coal industry development the in Russia in the context of the transition to carbon neutrality

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for the development of the coal industry in Russia for 2021-2030 in the context of the transition to carbon neutrality. Irwin’s criterion was used to analyze outliers of a number of dynamics, the method of ascending and descending series to identify a trend, standard methods for assessing autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. For forecasting, the equations of trends, the method of exponential smoothing were used. The necessity of constructing a differentiated forecast for three elements of the use of coal mined in Russia is shown: domestic consumption, export to Europe, export to the Asia-Pacific region. Domestic coal consumption is very stable and with a 95% probability it will be between 210 and 225 million tons. Coal exports to the west will decline monotonically in line with plans by European governments to stop using thermal coal. It will be about 60 million tons in 2025 and about 15-20 million tons in 2030. Exports to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region will grow until 2030. After 2030, demand for thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific region will begin to decline in line with China's plans to move towards carbon neutrality by 2050-2060. According to the forecast obtained in the study, the export of coal from Russia to the east will reach 150 million tons in 2025 and 190 million tons in 2030, after which it will begin to decline. Therefore, the coal-mining regions of Russia in the next 5-10 years must diversify the economy.