The Dependence of the CZK Exchange Rate on the Development of the GDP in the Czech Republic in the Conditions of an Expected Crisis

Abstract

Research background: In the past, some studies proved that the development of a currency exchange rate predicts the development of the whole national economy. The monetary market overtakes the development of the actual economy for a few months. Does this apply also in the case of the Czech koruna, in the era of the global Coronavirus pandemics and in the world affected by the pandemics? Purpose of the article: The main objective is to analyze a dependence of the Czech koruna (CZK) to Euro (EUR) exchange rate development on gross domestic product of the Czech Republic in the conditions of an expected crisis. Methods: The data used of the analysis are represented by the information about the CZK and EUR exchange rate from the beginning of 1999 to the 15th June 2020 and by the quarterly development of the Czech GDP. To measure the dependence and predict the development of the GDP based on the CZK exchange rate development, the method of AI is used, namely the regression analysis using the artificial neural networks. Findings & Value added: The effect of EUR/CZK on GDP can be quantified reaching around 31%. It is assumed that the GDP will fall significantly in 2020 with a certain growth only being possibly expected in 2021 (even more significantly in the second quarter of 2021). Due to the GDP development, the development of the EUR/CZK could then be forecasted as well.