Analysis of the influence of factors on agflation as a threat to food security: setting the task of system modeling in the context of globalization

Abstract

Research background: The problem of food security in the country is one of the most pressing problems of our time. At the moment, due to the pandemic, agflation has a very tangible increase in many countries of the world. The authors propose to apply a system analysis to study the mechanism of the influence of various factors on agflation and their interrelationships. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to formulate the task of systemic modeling of agflation processes and its impact on the sustainability of food security. Methods: The authors propose to draw up systems of econometric equations, which are modules combined into one system. Equations in these systems are constructed using regression analysis, and the dependent variables in one equation can be independent in another, and can also be used in different modules. Thus, there is a connection between various equations of one system and the modules of a single system. The whole system is built on the classical model of supply and demand, which reaches equilibrium when the values of the supply and demand variables are equal. But if these variables are equal, a rational level of food consumption by the population must be maintained for the sustainability of food security. Findings & Value added: The result is the formulation of the task of modeling the influence of factors on agflation. Due to the flexibility of the model, it is possible to trace the impact of each of the factors on the regulation of supply and demand, or how demand and supply are modified when several factors change.