Risk Path Identification and Research of Digital Trade Enterprises Based on the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Model

Abstract

As the world ’s largest trading country, it is very important to ensure the stable operation of digital trading enterprises in the digital economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the identification and influence path of risk factors. Based on the literature analysis method and expert interview method, this paper determines 18 risk factors of digital trade enterprises, and then divides the risk into two dimensions of internal and external factors to form the risk path identification index system of digital trade enterprises. The DEMATEL ( Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory ) -ISM ( Interpretative Structure Method-Cross-Impact ) -MICMAC ( Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification ) method was used to quantitatively reveal the comprehensive influence degree of each influencing factor. And the reason degree and centrality of its impact on the risk of China ’s digital trade enterprises are divided into strong ( weak ) driving type according to the value of reason degree greater than zero ( less than zero ). Further analysis of the hierarchical structure and overall influence relationship of the risk factors of China ’s digital trade enterprises, the causes of the seven levels of China ’s digital trade enterprise risk are obtained. Then, combined with the dependence of each key risk factor and the size of the driving force, the risk factors are divided into four quadrants, and the interaction between the risk factors is revealed. The results show that the key factors affecting enterprises are financial risk, decline of digital trade, increase of trade barriers, aggravation of digital financial risk spillover and aggravation of supply chain crisis. Based on the algorithm, this study identifies the risk factors and ways that affect Chinese digital trade enterprises. The research results can provide theoretical risk path guidance for the risk management of enterprise risks, and provide scientific decision-making basis for enterprises when facing risks.